Overview:
India currently rank fourth in the ongoing WTC cycle, having played eight Tests with four victories and three losses. Gill’s men boast a win ratio of 54.17%.
“The only toss I am going to win is the WTC final,” India skipper Shubman Gill had said at Eden Gardens after South Africa opted to bat first. But the hosts’ bid for a spot in the 2027 World Test Championship final suffered a setback as they fell short by 30 runs in the series opener.
With this defeat, India can’t win the series against the Proteas, reaching the halfway point of their 2025–27 WTC campaign. So far, they have won just one series, a 2-0 win over the West Indies, and drew 2-2 in a five-Test series against England earlier this year.
India currently rank fourth in the ongoing WTC cycle, having played eight Tests with four victories and three losses. Gill’s men boast a win ratio of 54.17%.
India have 10 matches left in their schedule, kicking off with the second Test against South Africa in Guwahati. Following that, tours to Sri Lanka and New Zealand, each comprising two Tests, are on the cards, before concluding with a high-stakes five-Test home series against Australia in the next Border-Gavaskar Trophy edition.
While much will depend on the performances on the field, it is too soon to conclude, as all teams remain in contention. However, insights can be drawn from how sides qualified in the previous three editions.
How teams qualified in the previous three World Test Championship cycles
| Finalist Win Percentage | WTC Cycle |
| New Zealand (72.2), India (70) | 2019-21 |
| Australia (66.7), India (58.8) | 2021-23 |
| South Africa (69.44), Australia (67.54) | 2023-25 |
This indicates that, with India in 2023 being the only exception, teams generally need to surpass a benchmark of 65 to secure qualification. Here’s a look at India’s scenario depending on the outcomes of their remaining 10 matches.
How India’s remaining fixtures could shape their WTC 2025-27 percentage
| Matches W0n | Win Percentage |
| 0 | 24.07 |
| 1 | 29.63 |
| 2 | 35.19 |
| 3 | 40.74 |
| 4 | 46.3 |
| 5 | 51.85 |
| 6 | 57.41 |
| 7 | 62.96 |
| 8 | 68.52 |
| 9 | 74.07 |
| 10 | 79.63 |
To surpass the 65% threshold and remain in contention, India must win 8 of its remaining 10 matches. With six wins and four draws, the team would hit 68.52%, comfortably clearing the 65% benchmark. Two losses and a draw would bring it down to 64.81%, while three defeats and one draw would push it below 60%.